To check Polymarket prediction market odds from OpenClaw, run `clawhub install polymarket-odds` — no API key required for reading public probability data. The skill lets you ask OpenClaw for the current odds on any Polymarket event: election outcomes, crypto price targets, sports results, or any other active market, returning probabilities in plain percentage terms.
Check Prediction Market Probabilities for Any Event from OpenClaw Chat
Prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of thousands of participants into precise probability estimates for future events. Polymarket is the largest on-chain prediction market platform, with billions in trading volume on markets covering elections, crypto prices, regulatory decisions, sports outcomes, and more. The probabilities on Polymarket are often more accurate than polls or pundit predictions because participants put real money behind their beliefs — skin in the game creates honest probability estimates.
The Polymarket Odds skill is specifically designed for reading these probabilities as a research input. Unlike the broader Polymarket skill which handles market browsing and interaction, this skill is optimized for one thing: getting the current probability percentage for a specific event quickly and cleanly. Ask 'what are the odds that the Fed cuts rates in Q2 2026?' and get a direct probability answer sourced from real market participants, not speculation.
This skill requires no API key because Polymarket's probability data is publicly readable — the smart contracts on Polygon blockchain make all market positions transparent. Install the skill and start querying immediately. The probabilities update in near-real-time as market participants trade, so the figures you see reflect the current collective wisdom of the market at the moment you ask.
Integration method
The Polymarket Odds skill connects to Polymarket's public API to read event probabilities without authentication. It is a focused, read-only skill optimized for quickly retrieving the current YES/NO probability for specific events — ideal when you want probability data as a research input rather than browsing or interacting with markets. Install it once and ask OpenClaw for probabilities in plain language.
Prerequisites
- OpenClaw installed and running (see openclaw.ai for installation instructions)
- ClawHub CLI available in your terminal (bundled with OpenClaw)
- Internet access for live probability data (no account or API key required)
Step-by-step guide
Install the Polymarket Odds Skill via ClawHub
Install the Polymarket Odds Skill via ClawHub
Open your terminal and run the ClawHub install command. Like the Crypto Price skill, Polymarket Odds has no required configuration — it queries Polymarket's public API without authentication. The skill installs in seconds and is immediately ready to use. The install confirmation notes that no API credentials are required, since Polymarket's on-chain data is publicly accessible. There are no optional configuration variables needed for the core odds-reading functionality. If you also want to browse markets, search for new markets, and interact with Polymarket's full interface, install the polymarket skill as well — these two skills are complementary, with polymarket-odds being the lean odds-focused variant.
1clawhub install polymarket-oddsPro tip: Install both polymarket-odds (for quick probability lookups) and polymarket (for browsing and market interaction) to cover both use cases from OpenClaw chat.
Expected result: Terminal confirms: 'polymarket-odds@X.X.X installed successfully. No required config.' The skill is immediately active for probability queries.
Query Event Probabilities from OpenClaw Chat
Query Event Probabilities from OpenClaw Chat
Open OpenClaw chat and ask for prediction market odds on any topic. The Polymarket Odds skill searches active Polymarket markets for the event you describe and returns the current probability. Prediction market probabilities are expressed as percentages: a probability of 73% means market participants collectively believe there is a 73% chance the event resolves YES. These prices are determined by supply and demand — buyers of YES tokens push the probability up, buyers of NO tokens push it down. For specific markets, you can search by topic (e.g., 'Fed rate cut in Q2 2026'), by asset (e.g., 'BTC above $100k by June 2026'), or by category (e.g., 'all US election markets'). The skill returns the event title, current probability, trading volume (which indicates how many people have traded on this market — higher volume = more reliable probability), and time until resolution. If the skill can't find a specific market, it will return the closest matching active markets — use these to refine your query.
What are the current Polymarket odds for Bitcoin being above $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Also look for any Ethereum-related price target markets active right now.
Paste this in OpenClaw chat
Pro tip: Higher-volume markets tend to be more accurately priced than low-volume markets. When reviewing odds, always note the market volume — a 70% probability in a $5M market is more meaningful than a 70% probability in a $10K market.
Expected result: OpenClaw returns the current probability percentage for the requested event, along with the market volume and resolution date. If multiple matching markets exist, all are listed.
Compare Probabilities Across Related Markets
Compare Probabilities Across Related Markets
One of the most valuable use cases for Polymarket Odds in OpenClaw is comparing the probabilities of related events to identify inconsistencies or interesting opportunities. Prediction markets can sometimes have internally inconsistent pricing — for example, the probability of event A and event B both happening may be higher than the probability of either happening individually. Ask OpenClaw to pull probabilities across a category of related markets and compare them. This works well for: **Conditional reasoning**: 'If market A resolves YES, what does market B's probability imply about the relationship between these events?' **Timeline markets**: Multiple markets with the same event but different time horizons (e.g., 'BTC above $150k by Q1 2026' vs 'by Q3 2026' vs 'by end of 2026') reveal how the market prices time. **Competing scenarios**: In an election with multiple candidates, the probabilities should roughly sum to 100%. Deviations can reveal market views on unlikely outcomes. RapidDev can help build research workflows in OpenClaw that combine Polymarket probabilities with Hyperliquid market data and crypto prices for comprehensive event-driven analysis.
Get all active Polymarket markets related to Federal Reserve interest rate decisions in 2026. List each market, its current probability, and the resolution date. Then tell me what these markets imply about the market's expectation for the number of rate cuts in 2026.
Paste this in OpenClaw chat
1# Optional skill config2# ~/.openclaw/skills/polymarket-odds.yaml3polymarket-odds:4 default_category: all # filter by category: all, crypto, politics, sports, finance5 min_volume: 10000 # minimum market volume in USD to include in results6 include_resolved: false # include recently resolved markets in queries7 result_limit: 10 # max number of markets to return per queryPro tip: Set min_volume in your skill config to filter out thinly-traded markets that may have unreliable probabilities. Markets with under $10K in volume often have noisy prices that don't reflect genuine informed opinion.
Expected result: OpenClaw returns a structured comparison of related Polymarket odds, with probabilities, volumes, and dates laid out clearly, followed by a synthesis of what the collective odds imply.
Track Probability Changes Over Time
Track Probability Changes Over Time
Polymarket probabilities move as new information enters the market and traders update their views. Asking OpenClaw to track how a specific market's probability has changed over a recent period gives you insight into how information flow is affecting the collective forecast. For markets you're monitoring closely, ask OpenClaw to note the current probability and compare it to previous checks. You can build a simple monitoring habit by asking 'what are the current odds on X and how have they moved since yesterday?' — this captures both the current state and any directional movement. Rapid shifts in Polymarket probabilities (e.g., a market moving from 40% to 70% in a few hours) often indicate new material information hitting the market before it's widely covered in news. These probability moves can be early signals for related financial or business decisions.
Check the current Polymarket probability for the next major AI model release from Anthropic or OpenAI happening before June 2026. Note the current probability, volume, and any recent price movement if the API provides historical data.
Paste this in OpenClaw chat
Pro tip: Combine Polymarket probability monitoring with the Tavily AI Search skill to verify if probability movements correlate with real-world news — sudden probability moves often precede news cycle coverage of the underlying event.
Expected result: OpenClaw returns the current probability for the monitored event along with any available recent price history, giving you a sense of how the market's view has been evolving.
Common use cases
Probability Check Before a Decision
Before making a business, investment, or strategic decision that depends on an uncertain future event, check what the prediction market says the probability is. This adds a data-driven prior to your decision-making rather than relying on intuition or media narratives.
What is the current Polymarket probability for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by end of 2026? Also check the probability for Ethereum ETF approval in the next 6 months if that market exists.
Copy this prompt to try it in OpenClaw
Election and Political Outcomes Monitoring
Track political event probabilities in key elections, regulatory votes, or geopolitical developments that may affect business or investment decisions. Polymarket's political markets are among its most-traded and most-accurate.
Check the current Polymarket odds for the top 5 most-traded political or policy markets right now. Show me the event name, current YES probability, and total market volume so I can gauge how well-priced each market is.
Copy this prompt to try it in OpenClaw
Crypto Event Probability Monitoring
Monitor prediction market probabilities for crypto-specific events — ETF approvals, protocol upgrades, price targets, exchange outcomes — to inform trading or positioning decisions alongside technical market data.
Find all active Polymarket markets related to crypto that close in the next 30 days. List each market, the current YES probability, the volume, and how many days until resolution.
Copy this prompt to try it in OpenClaw
Troubleshooting
OpenClaw can't find a specific Polymarket market I'm looking for
Cause: The market may not exist, may use a different title than expected, or may have already resolved. Polymarket market titles are specific and the search must match closely.
Solution: Try broader search terms. Instead of the exact event wording, use key nouns (e.g., 'Bitcoin 100k' instead of 'Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31 2026?'). Also check polymarket.com directly to find the exact market title and use that in your query.
clawhub install polymarket-odds fails with a network or registry error
Cause: Temporary ClawHub registry availability issue.
Solution: Wait 2-3 minutes and retry. Use --force to clear partial installation state.
1clawhub install polymarket-odds --forceProbability percentages seem stuck or not reflecting recent market moves
Cause: Polymarket's API may have a caching layer that introduces a slight delay, or the skill is querying a snapshot rather than live prices. During very high-volume trading periods, data may lag by a few minutes.
Solution: This is typically a transient issue that resolves within a few minutes. If probabilities seem persistently stale, run `clawhub update polymarket-odds` to ensure you're using the latest skill version with the most current API integration.
1clawhub update polymarket-oddsThe skill returns markets that have already resolved instead of active markets
Cause: The default include_resolved setting may be showing both active and recently resolved markets.
Solution: Set include_resolved: false in your skill config, or add 'active markets only' to your OpenClaw prompt to filter for currently trading markets.
1# In ~/.openclaw/skills/polymarket-odds.yaml2polymarket-odds:3 include_resolved: falseBest practices
- No API key is required — install the skill and start reading probabilities immediately without any configuration.
- Always note the market volume alongside the probability — high-volume markets have more reliable probability estimates than thinly traded ones.
- Treat Polymarket probabilities as crowd-sourced calibrated forecasts, not certainties — a 75% probability means the event is likely but not guaranteed.
- When monitoring specific events over time, note the probability and check it again after relevant news events to see how the market incorporated new information.
- Use min_volume configuration to filter out low-quality market signals — markets under $10,000 in volume often have noise-dominated prices.
- Combine Polymarket odds with the Hyperliquid skill's funding rate data for a multi-signal view of market expectations on crypto events.
- For time-sensitive decisions, always cross-reference Polymarket probabilities with the Tavily AI Search skill to check for breaking news that may have just moved the market.
Alternatives
The broader Polymarket skill handles market browsing, search, and interaction — use it when you need to explore markets or interact with positions beyond reading specific odds.
Crypto Price provides live spot market prices for cryptocurrencies — use it alongside Polymarket Odds to compare actual price levels with market probability estimates for price targets.
Hyperliquid provides trading market data (funding rates, order books, open interest) — use it alongside Polymarket Odds for a complete picture of market positioning and community expectations.
Technical Analyst provides chart-based trading signals — pair it with Polymarket Odds to combine fundamental event probabilities with technical price analysis.
Frequently asked questions
How do I install Polymarket Odds in OpenClaw?
Run `clawhub install polymarket-odds` in your terminal. No API key or account is required. The skill connects to Polymarket's public API immediately after installation. Ask OpenClaw for the probability of any event and the skill returns the current market odds.
What is the difference between Polymarket Odds and the Polymarket skill in OpenClaw?
Polymarket Odds is a focused read-only skill optimized for quickly checking the probability of specific events. The Polymarket skill provides broader market browsing, search across categories, and interaction capabilities. Use Polymarket Odds when you want a quick probability lookup; use the Polymarket skill when you want to explore what markets exist, search by topic, or interact with positions.
Are Polymarket probabilities reliable?
Prediction market probabilities are generally well-calibrated — events assigned a 70% probability by Polymarket resolve YES roughly 70% of the time historically. This calibration comes from financial incentives: participants profit by identifying mispriced markets. Higher-volume markets with more traders are more reliable. Very low-volume markets may be noisy. Polymarket is not perfect, but it consistently outperforms polls and pundit predictions on major events.
Does RapidDev help with prediction market analysis workflows in OpenClaw?
Yes — RapidDev can help set up research workflows that combine Polymarket probabilities with live market data from Hyperliquid, crypto prices, and news search. This is particularly valuable for teams making decisions under uncertainty who want to incorporate multiple data signals into their analysis. Reach out to RapidDev for structured multi-skill configuration support.
Can I use OpenClaw Polymarket Odds to monitor how probabilities change over time?
Yes, though the skill provides current probabilities rather than a built-in historical chart. You can track changes by querying the same market multiple times and comparing results, or by asking OpenClaw to summarize the direction of change if the skill's API response includes recent price history. For continuous tracking, you can set up recurring OpenClaw prompts to log probability values to a notes tool or spreadsheet.
Why is clawhub install polymarket-odds not finding the skill?
Verify you are spelling the skill name exactly: `polymarket-odds` (with a hyphen, all lowercase). If the install fails with a network error, wait a few minutes and retry — the ClawHub registry occasionally has brief availability issues. Use `clawhub install polymarket-odds --force` to clear any partial installation state.
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